Wednesday, January 23, 2002

Wilmington, NC –Economic activity in the three Southeastern North Carolina counties of Brunswick, New Hanover and Pender will rise 4.5 percent to $7.1 billion during 2002, according to a forecast announced this morning by UNC Wilmington economists Claude Farrell and William W. Hall, Jr. This growth follows a decline of almost 3 percent in 2001.

Hall noted that growth in the local economy began to slow during the latter part of 2000. Factors contributing to the 2001 decline included the national recession that began late in the first quarter and early second quarter and the impact of the terrorist attacks in September. The terrorist attacks, in particular, were a devastating blow to consumer confidence and have prolonged the recession and set the stage for a slow recovery at the national level.

In looking at the timing of the local recovery, Farrell noted that following a flat fourth quarter 2001 and first quarter 2002, the economy will resume growing during the second quarter. He anticipates that growth should be quite healthy over the second half of the year.

Both economists expect a similar rebound in the national economy. The outlook for the state economy indicates a slower rebound and a rebound that lags that of the local and national economies.

Farrell and Hall are professors in the UNCW Cameron School of Business Department of Economics and Finance. Hall is also director of the UNCW Center for Business and Economics Services at the Cameron School.

For additional comment and analysis, contact Dr. Farrell at 910.962.3511 or Dr. Hall at 910.962.3419.